Logic of Qualitative Methods (Modules 3, 7)
Monday, June 16; Tuesday, June 17
James Mahoney (Northwestern University), Gary Goertz, Laura Garcia-Montoya (University of Toronto)
Modules 3 and 7 cover many classic and standard topics of qualitative methodology, with a special focus on how to write a qualitative dissertation or manuscript for publication as a book at an excellent university press. We survey the key research design, case selection, and theoretical issues that arise with such a project. The sessions use logic and set theory as a foundation for discussing and elucidating qualitative methods. The individual topics for the first module include a regularity theory of causality, a session on concepts and a session on multi-method research designs including Large-N qualitative analysis (LNQA), and case study research. The second module focuses on process tracing. After an introduction to process tracing, the module zooms in into two key topics: causal mechanisms and counterfactual analysis. The module concludes by demonstrating how to move from theoretical frameworks to practical applications, using real research examples that integrate process tracing and critical event analysis.
Participants may enter the module sequence after it has begun.
Logic of Qualitative Methods I (M3, June 16)
8:45am - 10:15am – Logic, Set Theory, and A Regularity Theory of Causality
James Mahoney
This session is divided into two parts. The first part provides a selection introduction to the use of logic and set theory in qualitative research. The key topics covered include necessary, sufficient, and INUS conditions; set diagrams; and statistics versus logic. The second part uses the ideas from the first part to introduce a regularity theory of causality. This theory understands causality as a relationship between X and Y in which: (1) X precedes Y in times; (2) X is directly or indirectly connected to Y in space and time; and (3) X is constantly conjoined with Y. We focus special attention on the third component.
Required readings:
- Gary Goertz and James Mahoney, “Mathematical Prelude,” “Causes of Effects versus Effects of Causes,” “Causal Models,” and “Within-Case versus Cross-Case Causal Analysis” in A Tale of Two Cultures: Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012), pp. 16-63, 87-99.
Suggested readings:
- James Mahoney and Laura Acosta, “A Regularity Theory of Causality for the Social Sciences.” Quality and Quantity 56 (2022), pp. 2001-2022.
1:30pm - 3:00pm –Social Science Concepts
Gary Goertz
This session provides basic guidelines for the construction and evaluation of concepts. It provides a framework for dealing with complex concepts, which are typical in much social science research, as well as the popular construction of global indices, such as HDI, poverty measures, and the like generated by IGOs, NGOs, the EU, World Bank, and so on.
Required readings:
- Gary Goertz, Social Science Concepts, revised ed. (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2020), chapter 2, pages 26-35, chapter 3.
Suggested readings:
- Gary Goertz 2020, Social Science Concepts, chapter 1, rest of chapter 2, and chapter 8 on typologies.
3:30pm - 5:00pm – Research Design: Large-N Qualitative Analysis (LNQA) and Case Study Research
Gary Goertz
This session discusses large-N qualitative analysis (LNQA). LNQA involves exploring strong regularities in well-defined and typically small populations. When using this methodology the outcome (Y=1) or treatment (X=1) is usually a relatively rare event, a common scenario in international relations and comparative politics. The method involves establishing a regularity, but then examining all cases within the scope via process tracing and within-case causal inference. Causal inference thus relies not on the regularity but on the within-case causal inference across the whole population. In addition the session covers the multimethod variant of LNQA involving connecting process tracing with statistical analyses.
Required readings:
- Gary Goertz and Stephan Haggard. “Large-N Qualitative Analysis (LNQA): Causal Generalization in Case Study and Multimethod Research”. Perspectives on Politics. 2023;21(4):1221-1239.
Suggested readings:
- Gary Goertz and Stephan Haggard. 2025. Large-N Qualitative Analysis: causal generalizations and multimethod research. Book manuscript.
Logic of Qualitative Methods II (M7, June 17)
8:45am - 10:15am – Introduction to process tracing and Causal Mechanisms
James Mahoney and Gary Goertz
This session offers an introduction to process tracing as a methodology for analyzing causality in individual cases with a focus on mechanisms. The first part of the session emphasizes four aspects of process tracing: mechanisms, case-based evidence, set theory and logic, and counterfactual analysis. The second part looks at creating causal models in the form of figures (i.e., theory figures), which will then guide the analysis of the individual case(s). It deals with conceptualizing and diagramming mediators, moderators, confounders, antecedent conditions, side door paths, and the like.
Required readings:
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Collier, David. 2011. “Understanding Process Tracing.” PS: Political Science and Politics 44: 823-830.
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Gary Goertz and Stephan Haggard. Chapter 4, “Causal models and mechanisms,” in “Large-N Qualitative Analysis” 2025, book manuscript.
Suggested readings:
- Gary Goertz. forthcoming. “Theorizing and diagramming causal models-mechanisms: comment on Homola et al.” Qualitative and Multi-Method Research.
1:30pm - 3:00pm – Applications: Critical events and process tracing
Laura García Montoya
This session bridges theory and practice through two concrete examples: process tracing and critical events analysis. Building on the foundations of causal mechanisms and counterfactual analysis introduced earlier, the session showcases how researchers can move from theoretical models to empirical applications. Drawing on original research, the examples illustrate how individual case studies and a counterfactual logic of causality can be leveraged for causal analysis. The session emphasizes the practical steps involved in designing and implementing each method, offering participants hands-on insights into how to implement these approaches.
Required readings:
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García-Montoya, Laura*, Güiza-Gómez, Diana Isabel & Arturo Chang. 2025. “Factionalized Mobilization: Development Paradigm Shifts and Marginalization in Colombia” Studies in Comparative International Development.
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Liu, Amy. “Process Tracing.” In Doing Good Qualitative Research, edited by Jennifer Cyr and Sara Wallace Goodman, 386-396. Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2024.
Suggested readings:
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García-Montoya, Laura, Güiza-Gómez, Diana Isabel and Ana Montoya. When En- forcers Become Spoilers: Hidden Policy Conflicts Between Reparations and Extractivism in Colombia. Working Paper
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Khoury, Rana B. “Introduction.” In Civilizing Contention. Forthcoming. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
3:30pm - 5:00pm – Counterfactual Analysis
James Mahoney
This session considers the use of counterfactual analysis as a tool for evaluating complex causal theories at the level of individual cases. The session focuses on the evaluation of necessary condition hypotheses and INUS condition hypotheses with counterfactual analysis. The session uses several concrete examples to illustrate how counterfactual analysis is a crucial part of process tracing and hypothesis evaluation in qualitative research.
Required readings:
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Jack S. Levy, “Counterfactuals and Case Studies,” in Janet M. Box-Steffensmeier, Henry E. Brady, and David Collier, eds., The Oxford Handbook of Political Methodology (Oxford: Oxford University Press, 2008), pp. 627-644.
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James Mahoney and Rodrigo Barrenechea, “The Logic of Counterfactual Analysis in Case-Study Explanation,” British Journal of Sociology 70:1 (2019), pp. 306-338.
Suggested readings:
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Gary Goertz and James Mahoney, “Counterfactuals,” in A Tale of Two Cultures: Qualitative and Quantitative Research in the Social Sciences (Princeton: Princeton University Press, 2012), pp. 115-24.
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Frank P. Harvey, “President Al Gore and the 2003 Iraq War: A Counterfactual Test of Conventional Wisdom,” Canadian Journal of Political Science 45:1 (2012), pp. 1-32.
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Luis Schenoni, Sean Braniff, and Jorge Battaglino, “Was the Malvinas/Falklands a Diversionary War? A Prospect-Theory Representation of Argentina’s Decline,” Security Studies 29 (2020), pp. 34-63.