Process Tracing and Typological Theories (Modules 31, 35)

Thursday, June 26; Friday, June 27

Andy Bennett (Georgetown University)

This module examines the inferential logic of process tracing, which is used extensively in qualitative case studies. We will use Bayesian probability as one foundation for causal inference in process tracing, which entails assessing which hypothesis or theory provides the best explanation for the evidence at hand. We will cover practical advice for conducting process-tracing research as well as best practices for applying Bayesian reasoning in case study analysis. Finally, the module introduces typological theorizing as a way to address interaction effects and an aid in selecting cases for process tracing, and we will discuss examples of typological theories proposed in students’ own work as well as in published research.

Book to Purchase: Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences. (2005)

Participants may enter the module sequence after it has begun, but their doing so is discouraged.

Process Tracing and Typological Theories I (M31, June 26)

This module introduces the philosophical basis of process tracing and the basics of case study research design. It then outlines the methods of process tracing, including an introduction to formal Bayesian process tracing, and typological theorizing.

8:45am - 10:15am – Philosophy of Science and Case Study Research Design

This session covers the philosophy of science of causal mechanisms and causal inference that are the foundation of the method of process tracing. The session also outlines the fundamentals of case study research design.

Required readings:

• Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences, preface and chapter 7, pages 127-150. (book to obtain)

• Alexander L. George and Andrew Bennett, Case Studies and Theory Development in the Social Sciences, chapter 4, pages 73-88. (book to obtain)

Suggested readings:

• Jason Seawright and John Gerring, Case Selection Techniques In Case Study Research. Political Research Quarterly 61(2) June 2008, 294-308

1:30pm - 3:00pm – Traditional and Formal Bayesian Process Tracing

This session outlines the method of process tracing and provides a brief introduction to formal Bayesian process tracing (those interested in learning further about formal Bayesian process tracing are highly encouraged to take Tasha Fairfield’s module on this topic, M31 and M35 in the second week of the institute on Thursday and Friday).

Required readings:

• Andrew Bennett and Jeffrey Checkel, Process Tracing: From Metaphor to Analytic Tool, chapter 1, pp. 3-37.

• Tasha Fairfield and Andrew Charman, “Explicit Bayesian Analysis for Process Tracing: Guidelines, Opportunities, and Caveats” Political Analysis vol. 25, no. 3 (July 2017) pp. 363- 380.

Suggested readings:

• Tasha Fairfield and Andrew Charman, Social Inquiry and Bayesian Inference (Cambridge, 2022).

3:30pm - 5:00pm – Typological Theorizing and Case Selection

This session outlines the method of typological theorizing and discusses the ways in which it helps us think about high order interactions effects, equifinality, and case selection in qualitative research.

Required readings:

• Excerpt from Andrew Bennett, “New Developments in Case Study Methods for Institutional Economics,” forthcoming in Mary Shirley and Claude Menard, eds., Handbook of New Institutional Economics, Second Edition, pp. 6-14

Process Tracing and Typological Theories II (M34, June 27)

This module focuses on exercises in traditional and formal Bayesian process tracing, and in the final session we will discuss examples of typological theories posed by students in the module.

8:45am - 10:15am – Process Tracing Exercises

This session works through exercises on process tracing, focusing on the tasks of thinking through the observable implications of alternative explanations, gathering evidence, and interpreting evidence.

Required readings:

• Read and prepare “Process Tracing Exercises March 2022”

• Briefly review “Archival Interpretation Docs full texts” (these are not self-explanatory but Prof. Bennett will explain them in class).

1:30pm - 3:00pm – Formal Bayesian Process Tracing Exercises

This session works through exercises on formal Bayesian process tracing, emphasizing the tasks of using the logic of the alternative explanations to estimate the relative likelihood of the evidence under these explanations.

Required readings:

• Read and prepare Bayesian PT exercise Queralt Pawned States

• Read and prepare Bayesian process tracing exercise Iraq WMD

3:30pm - 5:00pm – Discussion of Student Examples of Typological Theories

This session will discuss examples of typological theories posed by students in the course.

Required readings

• No readings – we will review in class examples provided by fellow students.